PSRC will release a package of long-range forecast products in May 30, 2012. The forecast package will include two new future land use datasets: the 2012 Land Use Forecast and the 2012 Local Targets Representation methodology (see below for a description of these products and supplemental resources).

Members and interested stakeholders will be invited to review and comment on the draft 2012 Land Use Forecast and the draft methodology for the 2012 Local Targets Representation from February 28, 2012 to March 30, 2012. More information on reviewing the draft forecast is available on our Forecast Review Page.

Forecast Products Package

2012 Land Use Forecast

The 2012 Land Use Forecast is a long-range small area forecast developed using PSRC’s new UrbanSim model. The 2012 Land Use Forecast represents where future development is likely to occur based on how the market responds to development capacities established in local jurisdictions’ pre-VISION 2040 comprehensive plans (circa 2011).

2012 Local Targets Representation

The 2012 Local Targets Representation is a companion product to the Land Use Forecast that provides a long-range future land use dataset based on local 2030-2035 growth targets developed (or being developed) by each county to align with VISON 2040’s Regional Growth Strategy

The Local Targets Representation is based on a set of “decision rules” used to disaggregate local growth targets to modeling zones based on locally planned development capacities and regional policies adopted in VISION 2040. It represents a possible distribution of population and employment growth that could occur under the first set of VISION 2040-aligned local growth targets.

Future Products

The Forecast Product Package will also include the following supplemental resources:

• An analysis of the 2012 Land Use Forecast compared to the VISION 2040 Regional Growth Strategy.
• Guidance on how to utilize the datasets for local planning purposes and how they relate to PSRC’s Plan Review process.

Technical assistance from PSRC staff will also be available to members and other data users as needed.