PSRC staff has worked closely with our economic modeling consultants to prepare a draft 2012 Puget Sound economic forecast through 2040 that provides key inputs to the UrbanSim land use model and other planning models. The current forecast employs a new model system, which is actually a series of linked forecasting modules. The model system was developed by the firm ECONorthwest (Dr. Andrew Dyke and Dr. Randall Pozdena). The model system links one of the best national economic models (a model by Professor Ray Fair of Yale University) to a top-level regional model, and then to a series of regional sub models. These sub models provide geographic dimensionality and, in turn, are linked to transportation tax base modules. This model was originally created for the region in 2006 and has been updated for use in the 2012 Land Use Forecasts and reflects the latest thinking on the regional and national economies.

PSRC’s 2006 Regional Economic and Demographic Forecast for the central Puget Sound region was produced using a version of the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster (PSEF) Model. The regional forecast variable serve as control totals in the development of PSRC’s small area Forecasts of Population, Households, and Employment.

The regional forecast variables include wage & salary employment by major sector, income and price variables, population by age cohort (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, 65+), group quarter population, household population by single family and multifamily housing type, and households by single family and multifamily housing type. Data are available annually from 1970 through the year 2040.

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2006 Puget Sound Economic and Demographic Forecast