Regional View Newsletter
May 2005  [pdf version]
Table of Contents
Growth Management by the Numbers: Are We On Target?

Growth targets represent the amount of household, population, or employment growth a local jurisdiction has committed to accommodate by some future year. While cities and counties have a duty to accommodate the targets, they are allowed broad discretion on how they are to do so. Counties and cities have recently adopted the latest set of targets, incorporating new techniques, and extending their planning horizons to 2022 or 2025.

For the past year, PSRC has been examining growth targets in the region as part of the Puget Sound Milestones monitoring program. This analysis represents the first time that targets from all four counties have been examined from a regional perspective. It provides insight into the structure and methods of the targeting process, as well as the results.

Growth targets are guided by the Growth Management Act's (GMA) planning goals and, as such, should encourage growth in urban areas. Case law from the Central Puget Sound Growth Management Hearings Board suggests that growth should be targeted largely to cities within the urban growth area. This is consistent with regional multicounty planning policy, which supports focusing growth into cities and their designated regional growth centers.

Some data findings are summarized below:
RESIDENTIAL TARGETS

  • The regionally aggregated growth target - the minimum number of new residents the four counties must accommodate - calls for growth of 909,000 residents by the end of the planning period. This represents an annual increase of about 40,000 residents per year, a decrease from the 53,000 new residents per year that had been seen in the 1990s.
  • King County has the highest countywide growth target and anticipates 311,500 new residents by 2022. Pierce County's countywide growth target anticipates 211,880 new residents during the same period. Snohomish and Kitsap counties both have a planning period that extends to 2025, and are anticipating 286,200 and 99,600 new residents during that time.
  • Adding up the targets adopted by the four counties finds that incorporated cities were targeted for population growth totaling 533,300 new residents over the planning period. The rural areas of the region were targeted for growth of 105,000 residents.
  • In total, 253,000 residents were targeted to areas that are within the urban growth area, but not within any city. Of this targeted growth, 70% was allocated to areas that are affiliated with cities for purposes of joint planning and future annexation.

    EMPLOYMENT TARGETS

  • Currently, only King and Snohomish counties set employment targets. King County anticipates 289,000 new jobs in the 2000-2022 planning period. Snohomish County anticipates an increase of 125,000 jobs during its 2002-2025 planning period.
  • Employment targets are much more heavily focused in cities than residential targets. King and Snohomish counties' total employment growth target is an increase of 414,000 jobs, 90% of which are allocated to cities in comparison to 61% of those counties' population target.

    FINDINGS
    The state of the art of growth targeting has improved significantly since the first round of growth targets were adopted in the early 1990s. Counties are beginning to link their targets more closely to other planning efforts, creating more integrated and holistic planning processes. However, opportunities exist for further refinement of these processes:

  • The planning horizons are not consistent. Each county currently uses a different starting and ending point for its targets. This can make aggregating and analyzing the targets difficult on a regional scale, and complicates the planning requirements for cities that are located within more than one county.
  • The methodologies differ, but are not inconsistent. Each county uses a different methodology for allocating growth targets, making regional coordination more difficult. Portions of each county's methodology could be combined and used as recommended regional 'best practices'.
  • Employment targets to some extent already exist and add value. King and Snohomish counties currently set employment targets, which can help to promote a balance of jobs and housing. These employment targets are useful to cities and counties in preparing their comprehensive plans and ensuring capacity for economic growth.
  • Targets for regional growth centers are not well integrated into the process. While requirements exist in some countywide planning policies to establish growth targets for designated centers, not all jurisdictions do so.
  • The connection between the results of the targeting process, the GMA and VISION 2020 goals could be clearer. The results of each county's growth target distribution processes vary significantly. Providing clearer regional guidance would help ensure that the targets implement the regional vision and GMA goals.
  • Targets partially consider the impact on annexation and incorporation. Best practices support targeting growth into annexation areas.

    For more information about Growth Targets contact Yorik Stevens-Wajda at 206-389-2158 or ystevens@psrc.org or Ivan Miller at 206-464-7549 or imiller@psrc.org. Growth Management by the Numbers: Population, Household, and Employment Growth Targets in the Central Puget Sound Region will be released as a Puget Sound Milestones report in June 2005.

    Younger People Continue to Migrate to the Central Puget Sound Region

    People who moved to the Puget Sound region between 1995 and 2000 tended to be younger and better educated compared to those who moved out of the region during the same period. Across all education levels, in-migrants were younger, in some cases much younger, than out-goers. Additionally, both groups were considerably younger than the regional average.

    During that period almost 150,000 more people moved into the region than moved out. King County received slightly more than half of all in-migrants to the region, and contributed about the same percentage to all out goers. Both percentages were about the same as the county's portion of the region's 2000 population. Over a third (38%) of those in-migrants ended up in Seattle.

    The number of in-migrants in between 1995-2000 represented 17.4% of the regional population. In 1990, the percent of in-migrants (i.e., those who lived outside the region in 1985) was 19.4%. In 2000, the number of persons who moved out of the region between 1995 and 2000 represents 13.1% of the 2000 population; the comparable figure from the 1990 census was 8%.

    In-migrants are significantly younger than out-migrants at all income and educational levels and in all occupations. The median age of in-migrants is 29 years, compared to 31 years for out-migrants and 35 years for the region as a whole. In-migrants are slightly older than in 1990, when the median ages were 28, 29 and 32, respectively.

    In-migrants also tend to be better educated than out goers, and in some cases better than the region as a whole. The percentage of in-migrants with bachelors or masters degrees is significantly higher than either out-migrants or the regional median. In addition, in-migrants with college degrees are younger than out-migrants and the regional median. In-migrants with masters degrees or above are 10 to 11 years younger than the regional average.

    Among persons with occupations, the median age of in-migrants is 4 years younger that out-migrants, 31 to 35. The occupations with the largest separations are computer and other sciences, engineering, and social and legal services, with 4-6 years separating in-migrants from out-migrants. In most professional white-collar occupations, in-migrants were 10-11 years younger than the regional median.

    For more information, please contact Neil Kilgren at 206-464-7964 or nkilgren@psrc.org. The full version of this Trend is available online at psrc.org or from the Information Center at 206-464-7532 or infoctr@psrc.org.

    SOURCE: These findings are from the Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) from the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. This Census product contains complete census questionnaire answers for a sampling of households in areas of 100,000 or more. This allows the selection of a specific subset of the population (people who either moved into the area between 1995 and 2000, or who moved out of the region) and examines the demographic characteristics of that group.

    Back Issues
    April 2005 | March 2005 | February 2005 | December 2004 | November 2004 | October 2004 | September 2004 | August 2004 | July 2004 | June 2004 | May 2004 |