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How will the price of gas affect the number of cars on the road? These are the kinds of questions the Regional Council's transportation model is designed to answer. The model crunches many gigabytes of data and comes up with a reasonable simulation of current and future travel patterns that decision-makers can use to plan the transportation improvements needed to keep up with growth and fight traffic congestion.
"Regional travel demand modeling isn't a crystal ball -- we can't predict the future. But the model does give us technical information which helps guide and support good decision-making," says Robert Sicko, who heads up the Regional Council's technical services group. The transportation modeling process will be a primary tool in the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan to show how different transportation strategies may influence traffic congestion. This issue of VIEW attempts to demystify the modeling process and describe how information from transportation models will be used in the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Transportation Modeling 101Transportation modeling involves a number of different computer models and numerous modeling steps. Briefly, the process answers the following questions: How many jobs and people? The Regional Council forecasts economic and demographic changes for the four-county region over time using historical data from 1958 through 1997. For example, the model projects how many people will live and work in the region, and in what types of jobs. Where will jobs and people locate? The next step is to predict the location of jobs and people. A land use model is used to distribute jobs and people into smaller areas called Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZs). This allocation is made using the most current information available from cities and counties about their projected housing and employment growth, and is extensively reviewed by local jurisdictions to verify its accuracy. How will people travel? The Regional Council then forecasts how many trips people will take per household, where they are going, how they get there (bus, car, carpool), and what route they'll take. What are the environmental effects? The Regional Council models the air quality impacts of existing and projected travel, recognizing that the transportation investment choices the region makes will influence the region's air quality in the long term. Since planners don't know what the future holds, they must apply some assumptions about land use, economic and demographic trends, cost of transportation, and travel behavior to a travel forecast. The results of the model vary depending on the assumptions used. For example, whether someone takes the bus for some trips depends on a number of factors, including gas and parking costs, transit fares and travel times. If we assume gas and parking costs skyrocket, forecasts of bus ridership will go up. Assume the opposite and the model will show more people driving.
At various stages in the modeling process, the results are given a reality check. Planners consult with local jurisdictions to make sure the numbers make sense, and cross-check how well the model predicts current "observed" data, such as park-and-ride utilization and highway vehicle counts. Good Data Key to Forecasting the Future It takes tons of data to forecast future mobility. The model consumes billions of pieces of the best data available on population, employment, travel behavior, real estate and much more. Just a few of the data sources used include: U.S. census records, transit and ferry schedules and ridership numbers, local building permits and real estate data, and population estimates from the state's Office of Financial Management.
![]() In addition to using outside sources of data, the Regional Council conducts its own surveys and data collection efforts which feed into the model. Since 1989, the Regional Council has conducted eight "waves" of the Puget Sound Transportation Panel, a longitudinal survey of about 1,700 households that allows planners to analyze changes in travel behavior over time. In addition, the Regional Council conducts a Household Activity Survey which reveals the travel habits and attitudes of about 6,000 people within the region. Modeling and the 2001 Metropolitan Transportation Plan The Regional Council's modeling process is an important tool in the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, which is scheduled for adoption in March 2001. Currently, the Regional Council is using the model to test future transportation scenarios to show their effects on congestion and mobility. For example, if we build more roads, will that improve mobility? Will a higher gas tax or parking charges affect congestion? If more people lived in compact, walkable neighborhoods, would that cut down on the number of trips by car? The Regional Council's Transportation and Growth Management Policy Boards will review the output of these scenarios and will make recommendations to the Executive Board about what combination of strategies should be part of the Environmental Impact Statement for the plan update. "The transportation modeling process obviously has an important effect on policy decisions. The Regional Council has done a great job in working with local jurisdictions at each step to make sure results match with reality, so there's a lot of confidence in the results," says Seattle Councilmember Richard McIver, who chairs the Transportation Policy Board. While the Regional Council's modeling is among the most admired in the country, the future is hard to predict. Changes in technology will undoubtedly have a dramatic effect on the region. And an increasingly older population will, unlike previous generations, probably use the auto well into their golden years. To stay on top of these changes, forecasts are updated regularly and use new sources of data, including surveys about travel behavior, that indicate what the future may hold. Results from the Regional Council's transportation demand models for the base year 1998 and the forecast years of 2020 and 2030 are presented in the Baseline Technical Report for the 2001 Update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, which also contains more information on the technical aspects of the development of the plan. The report will be available on the Regional Council's Web site by the end of June.
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Regional Officials Tour South Sound Cities
New sidewalks and street lights, safer crosswalks, commuter rail stations, historic buildings getting facelifts -- it's all happening in south-central Puget Sound communities.
Within a few years, Kent, Auburn, Sumner, Puyallup, and Tacoma will have experienced major transformations. Residents will be able to hop a Sound Transit train to Seattle or Tacoma, shop on walkable, people-friendly streets in downtown, and find housing close to new transit stations.
In other areas, such as University Place and Lakewood, local officials are remaking their communities by redeveloping shopping areas, acquiring open space, improving the environment for biking and walking, and making it easier to use transit.
In May, the Growth Management Policy Board went on the road to tour selected transit station areas, urban centers and suburban clusters in south King and north Pierce counties. This first hand experience is designed to help regional officials gain an understanding of land use and transportation issues related to the 2001 update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. The Policy Board is currently considering growth management guidelines and strategic programs for inclusion in the draft plan, due out in August. Below are a few highlights from the tour.
Auburn
Most of the actions outlined in the city's 1990 comprehensive plan have been accomplished, including sidewalks, street lighting and benches that make downtown a very pleasant place to be. Auburn is now in the midst of a downtown planning effort that will build on new transportation investments -- the Sounder station and the Third Street FAST corridor project, which will ease conflicts between rail and automobile traffic.
The new Auburn Station will include a large public plaza, a bus transit center, park-and-ride lot and drop-off areas for train and bus riders. Special concierge services are planned so riders can drop off their cars for repair at the station. Construction is underway and expected to be completed by February 2000. Sounder trains are due to start running in September.
Sumner
The city wanted to accommodate new housing growth, but still keep the same small-town feeling and walkability of older neighborhoods in Sumner. In partnership with developers, the school district and rotary club, the city helped revitalize the Daffodil Neighborhood just east of the downtown core. The results include 65 neo-traditional, single-family houses on small lots, 42 cottage units, eight live-work units, and eight apartments in a mixed-use building. Other amenities include a new school specifically designed to be pedestrian-friendly, a new athletic complex, and a new church, St. Andrew's Parish, which is an important icon at the center of the neighborhood.
Sumner's future commuter rail station in downtown is designed to resemble a hops kiln reflecting the agricultural history and heritage of Sumner. When service starts, Sound Transit will provide covered platforms, parking, passenger safety and security, lighting, accessibility improvements and transfer areas to get on Pierce Transit and Sound Transit buses.
South Hill
Located just off SR 512 in Puyallup, South Hill contains a regional mall, suburban shopping, apartment complexes, office buildings, and a semiconductor plant and associated industries. Although it has been designated an urban center by Pierce County, the area lacks many characteristics of a walkable, compact center. The area is zoned "auto-oriented commercial" and includes stores such as Target, Office Depot, Lamonts, Home Depot, and a drive-through Starbucks.
Annexed by Puyallup just three years ago, the area has experienced more growth in the last 20 years than any other area in Pierce County. Residents are concerned about traffic, and are currently working on a community plan.
Lakewood
Incorporated just three years ago, Lakewood is characterized by suburban, single-family neighborhoods. The city is working hard to create a sense of place by establishing a central business district and a special district around the future Lakewood Sound Transit station to accommodate a dense mix of office, retail and high-density housing. The city also plans to improve conditions for biking and walking and improve aesthetics throughout the city.
An interesting aspect of Lakewood's planning effort is their designation of an "urban renewal district," which includes Lakewood Station and the central business district. This designation will allow the city to participate in land assembly in an effort to promote redevelopment. Potential zoning for this area would require minimum densities of about 40 units per acre.
Lakewood Mall, which in the past has suffered from high vacancies and poor highway access, may be purchased by a developer who plans to invest heavily in improving the property. This could include "de-malling" by opening up the property to the outside and putting a new public street through the mall. The city plans to build a new city hall near the mall as part of the redevelopment.
Sounder commuter rail service to the Lakewood Station will begin operating by late 2001. The station is planned to be located along Pacific Highway SW. The city hopes to maximize investments in the station with expanded park-and-ride lots and transit connections.
University Place
When University Place incorporated five years ago, the city had only five blocks of sidewalks, no bike lanes and just a handful of street lights. And the city was among the most densely populated areas in Pierce County.
One of the promises of incorporation was to begin to address the city's infrastructure deficit. Since then, the city has spent $20 million on new infrastructure, including a city hall complex. They've addressed safety problems by putting in medians to slow down traffic, added 6 miles of sidewalks and 4 miles of bike lanes, and constructed the state's first traffic "roundabout." The city has also acquired over 30 acres of park property and has plans to reclaim one of the largest gravel mines in North America for recreation and other uses.
The city is beginning the process of creating a town center around 40th and Bridgeport Way that currently includes the city hall, library, city park, and shopping areas. New sidewalks, bike lanes, landscaped medians, crosswalks and street trees along Bridgeport Way were added to promote private development in the surrounding center.
Tacoma
Additional redevelopment activities are planned along the 1.6-mile light rail segment between the Tacoma Dome District and downtown due to begin operation in 2002. Projects include a new boutique hotel, retail/office development, housing, and a new convention center.
For more information about sites visited on the tour, or activities related to the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan, please contact Norman Abbott, (206) 464-7134.
Local Experts Brief Board Members
Members of the Growth Management Policy Board heard very useful commentary on land use and transportation issues in south Sound cities from local experts along the tour. Thank you to the following elected officials and staff for their contributions:
Val Batey, Sound Transit Commuter Rail Manager Back to Top
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Freight Mobility Roundtable Receives VISION 2020 Award
Over half of the funds for the $470 million program have been secured, and a ground breaking for the Port of Tacoma Road project, one of 15 included capital projects, was held on June 1. All projects are expected to be completed between 1999 and 2004. The Roundtable session also was attended by visiting teams from several other parts of the country and by representatives from the USDOT/DC. Regions sending delegations to tour the FAST Corridor (May 2-5) included the Longview region, Portland, Oakland, Houston, New Orleans, Baltimore, Fargo, and Chicago. Back to Top
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The Results Are In...Survey Asks 6,000 Households About Transportation
Those are just a few of the results from a survey that reveals the attitudes and travel habits of 6,000 households in the central Puget Sound region. The survey asked residents about the trips they take and how they get there, as well as their views on major growth and transportation issues facing the region. The data are being used in the 2001 update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan (see story above).
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National Transportation Study: Seattle - Everett Area Has Sparse Arterial Network Drivers in the Seattle-Everett area rely heavily on freeways to get around -- freeways make up almost half of the region's through roadways. In comparison to other urban areas, Seattle-Everett has a relatively sparse arterial network, which may explain why drivers depend on freeways for cross-town trips. In 1999, the Texas Transportation Institute ranked the Seattle-Everett urbanized area second only to Los Angeles among all metropolitan areas in its "travel rate index," a measure of the extra time a peak hour trip takes because of congestion. This Puget Sound Trend compares the freeway and arterial networks of these "Top 20" metropolitan regions. Local roads are not included. Figure 1 shows the percent freeway for the 20 metropolitan areas. A higher percentage means that the region depends more on freeways for cross-town trips. The chart also shows the number of lane miles per square mile in each region. A higher number means the roads are closer together and more land is covered by roads. Los Angeles clearly has a lot of land covered by roads and a majority of the roads are arterials. Freeways make up less than one-third of the total lane miles. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Atlanta and Tacoma have relatively sparse road networks Ñ less than 2.6 lane miles of freeway and arterial per square mile. And the first two rely heavily on freeways. Seattle-Everett's number two ranking in terms of delay during the peak period (the travel rate index) indicates that there are individual bottlenecks which drive up the total regional congestion delay and lower the performance of the system as a whole. For more information about this Trend, contact Larry Blain at (206) 464-5402.
Figure 1
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