Central Puget Sound Begins Crafting Updated 30-Year Transportation Plan

This fall the people of central Puget Sound will have a chance to shape a 30-year plan for transportation investments and tell regional officials what they care about most.

It's an opportunity for citizens to make choices -- to design a cost-effective transportation system that allows people to get to where they need to go, that supports great neighborhoods, plentiful jobs, and protects the quality of our air, water, and green spaces.

In late August, the Regional Council is scheduled to release a draft environmental review document that describes three future transportation scenarios designed to stimulate discussion of transportation choices, and options for funding them. Public participation this fall will help craft an efficient and fiscally sound preferred option comprised of the best elements of the three options studied.

"We're looking forward to a lively exchange this fall as the people of the region engage in a conversation about what the future of transportation in the region should look like, and how we intend to pay for it," says Councilmember Richard McIver, chair of the region's Transportation Policy Board.

The three options in the environmental review document are described below. Each option was run through the Regional Council's transportation models to see how the mix of investments affected congestion, travel delay and other measures.

Current Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) – Updated: This option contains the polices, programs and projects in the current Metropolitan Transportation Plan, which was adopted in 1995, with the addition of projects completed or underway since 1995, extended to the year 2030. The plan calls for a regional transportation system that emphasizes the efficient movement of freight, goods and information. The plan emphasizes a balance of transportation investments, supporting transit, roadways, carpooling, and biking and walking. This option assumes full build-out of the Sound Transit Sound Move plan.

Current Law Revenue: This option is limited to those elements in the current transportation plan that actually can be paid for under the current financing system, extended to the year 2030. It assumes no changes in taxes, tax rates, or the system of allocating tax revenues to various transportation uses. This option reflects cuts associated with Initiative 695. Minimal ferry service is assumed after year 2010, and only Phase I of the Sound Transit plan is completed. The option contains only minimal capacity improvements to arterials and freeways.

Increased Capacity (MTP Plus): This option includes all of the elements in the current Metropolitan Transportation Plan option, plus increased capacity in terms of freeway, arterial and HOV lane miles. This option also includes more bus transit routes and hours of service, expansion of ferry service, and places greater emphasis on policies and plans that concentrate housing, population and jobs in centers that can be more efficiently served by transportation. This option assumes full build-out of the Sound Transit plan.

"The results from the technical analysis show the tremendous benefit of investing in additional capacity s-- reduced congestion and delay. The challenge will be coming up with an affordable plan that meets our needs without overburdening our pocketbooks," McIver says.

Recognizing the link between land use and transportation, the Growth Management Policy Board is recommending a set of growth initiatives that would help cities and counties implement their growth management plans and support effective, accessible transportation. These initiatives include physical design guidelines, financial incentives, and development strategies.

"Each of the alternatives contains a mix of investments -- it's not about one mode versus another. It's clear we need investments in all kinds of transportation -- ferries, roads, transit, nonmotorized -- to keep up with the growth that's coming our way in the next 30 years," says Commissioner Charlotte Garrido, who chairs the Regional Council's Growth Management Policy Board.

Work on the 30-year regional transportation plan is being coordinated with the Governor's Blue Ribbon Commission on Transportation, which is due to issue recommendations in December. In early August, the Regional Council Executive Board held a joint working session with the Commission to discuss regional transportation issues and the update of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan.

Public discussion about the options this fall will culminate in a final draft plan that will be recommended by the Regional Council's Policy Boards in December. In March 2001 the General Assembly of the Regional Council -- which includes representatives from over 80 cities, counties, ports and transportation agencies in the region -- will vote on the plan.

In late August, copies of the draft Environmental Impact Statement on the transportation plan options will be available from the Regional Council's Information Center (206) 464-7532, infoctr@psrc.org.

More information: Map of the region and options for the updated Metropolitan Transportation Plan (PDF - 253K)

A transportation survey of approximately 1,750 households in King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties is set to begin in September, and will collect information about household travel behavior and people's attitudes and perceptions about choices available in making travel decisions.

The survey is the ninth "wave" of the Puget Sound Transportation Panel, which measures changes in travel behavior and attitudes over time for the central Puget Sound region. The Panel has been administered since 1989, with waves conducted every 12 to 18 months.

The upcoming wave of the panel will build on the two-day travel diary surveys last conducted in the spring of 1999. The survey will also revisit questions about people's awareness and use of traffic information that were first asked in 1997 (Wave 7).

In that year, the United States Department of Transportation funded a baseline survey of approximately 4,000 Seattle-area travelers that related to use of intelligent transportation systems (ITS).

The combination of data from the seventh and ninth waves of the panel survey and diary will provide a regional before-and-after measure of the impact of intelligent transportation systems on the traveling public. Data from the follow-up survey will help analysts to identify:

• To what extent intelligent transportation systems are used by the traveling public,
• The benefits of advanced traveler information systems to the consumer,
• The influence of advanced traveler information systems on traveler behavior (at the specific trip level)
• Reasons why some people who are aware of intelligent transportation systems choose not to use this information.

The Puget Sound Transportation Panel is the Regional Council's only source of continuous data on household travel behavior and attitudes for the central Puget Sound region. The Panel has been used extensively in the Regional Council's travel demand model development and is the source of information on mode choice, travel behavior and trip-making unique to the region.

The Puget Sound Transportation Panel is the only active panel survey of travel behavior in the nation. The Panel is being evaluated as a model for transportation data collection by several planning organizations in the United States, Australia, and Germany. The Regional Council also supports research efforts at several major universities in the United States and abroad by making this data available to researchers involved in advanced model development and transportation research.

For more information, contact Neil Kilgren, (206) 464-7964, e-mail nkilgren@psrc.org.

A concern foremost in the minds of regional leaders of urban Cascadia – Portland, central Puget Sound, and Vancouver BC – is whether these regions can absorb high-velocity population and job growth in the coming decades.

Complicating and potentially positive factors include a growing number of high tech industries that use a different set of rules for making location decisions, as well as an aging population that may be in the market for housing that's close to urban cultural amenities, services and mass transit.

The trends were among those discussed at the fourth annual Cascadia Metropolitan Forum in July, which brought together elected officials and staff from the three Cascadia regions to share information and ideas for dealing with growth issues.

The three regions share much in common – spectacular scenery, strong economies, and a dedication to innovative growth planning. While participants acknowledged that Cascadia is "ahead of the pack" in implementing smart growth plans, a common theme at the forum was a desire to do more.

Over the next 50 years, an "urban tsunami" is coming. By 2050, it's predicted that the world's population will reach 10 billion – with 7.5 billion living in cities.

Technology is changing, or has the potential to change, how people work and where they choose to live. For example, the presence of high-capacity fiber optic cable is a major determinant of where a high technology company decides to locate. Because they own right-of-ways, cities can significantly affect where fiber optic is installed, and have the ability to concentrate job growth in urban centers well-served by transportation.

The three regions are working on a number of cooperative efforts, including upgrading Amtrak rail between Vancouver BC and Eugene, Oregon. Other bi-national efforts include the Georgia/Puget Sound Basin project, which is examining the interactions of human development within the ecosystem centered around the Georgia Strait and Puget Sound.

A Cascadia Databook that compares key indicators among the three regions, as well as their planning and governance structures, is available on-line and from the Regional Council's Information Center, (206) 464-7532, infoctr@psrc.org.

Traffic in the central Puget Sound region is growing at about the same rate as population and employment. In the last decade, population increased 19 percent and employment grew by 27 percent, while vehicle miles traveled increased a comparable 26 percent.

This rate of traffic growth is much different from the previous decade when vehicle miles traveled increased nearly three times faster than population and jobs. During the 1980s, the rate of employment growth outstripped the rate of population growth as more households became two-worker households. The overall number of workers rose from four out of every 10 people in 1978 to five out of every 10 people in 1991. Commute-to-work distances became longer, and the number of registered vehicles also grew faster than the population.

In the 1990s, the number of workers is holding steady at about 5.4 out of every 10 people. In the last five years, the average annual rate of growth in employment has been 3.3 percent, population 1.3 percent, and vehicle miles traveled 2.2 percent. Although the rate of growth is moderating, the total growth of population, jobs, registered vehicles, and vehicle miles traveled continues each year. The table shows the actual numbers with their average annual growth rates.

	Population1	Employed Persons2	Average Weekday Vehicle Miles3
1981	2,309,400	1,021,900	30,337,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	1.4%	2.9%	6.1%
1986	2,472,900	1,179,500	40,851,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	2.7%	3.5%	6.2%
1991	2,826,600	1,402,100	55,265,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	1.6%	2.3%	1.8%
1996	3,056,800	1,567,100	60,386,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	1.4%	6.7%	4.0%
1997	3,101,100	1,672,100	62,778,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	1.6%	2.6%	1.9%
1998	3,149,700	1,715,000	64,000,000
5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate	1.3%	1.3%	1.9%
1999	3,190,000	1,736,700	65,233,000

Notes:
1 Source: Estimate, Office of Financial Management, Washington State. Coverage: King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties.
2 Source: Estimate, Puget Sound Regional Council, based on data from the Employment Security Department, Washington State. Coverage: King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties.
3 Source: Highway Performance Monitoring System, Department of Transportation, Washington State. Coverage: Seattle-Everett and Tacoma Urbanized Areas (basically Everett to Tacoma, Puget Sound to Lake Sammamish)
Because of different geographic coverages, it is not possible to use these figures to compare population or employment to VMT.

The Regional Council's current 2020 forecasts for population and employment predict that growth will continue. The regional population is expected to exceed four million before 2020, a 30 percent increase. If vehicle miles traveled continue to grow at the same rate as population and employment, as is now the trend, then the total vehicle miles traveled also will increase over 30 percent by the year 2020.

More information on traffic growth is presented in the August issue of Puget Sound Trends, available in PDF format. For more information, contact Larry Blain at lblain@psrc.org, (206)464-5402.

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