Predicting how today's 10-year-olds will travel around the region when they're 30-something is a tricky task. Using state of the art computer models, we can get a rough estimate -- a best guess -- of how people in central Puget Sound will be using the transportation system in the future.

The Regional Council's computer models churn through tons of data on population, economic forecasts, and travel behavior to develop forecasts of future traffic conditions. These forecasts are one tool used by elected officials and transportation planners to identify the kinds of transportation investments that will be most effective in reducing congestion, improving travel times and meeting other goals.

"The Regional Council's travel demand models have long been recognized nationally as state of the art. But we know there's room for improvement. We found, for example, that the models underestimate future transit ridership, especially in east King County," said Commissioner Bob Edwards, Regional Council President.

Last summer the Regional Council hired Cambridge Systematics to review the computer models and recommend improvements. They found that the models are generally within professionally accepted standards for accuracy, but also recommended a series of short- and long-term improvements that will make the models more useful.

"These models are tremendously important to local governments and the state. Modeling is a core function of the Regional Council -- we need to make sure the models are as accurate as possible," said Commissioner Aubrey Davis, Washington Transportation Commission.

Short-term fixes will focus mainly on feeding the models more accurate sources of data. Examples include updating transit routes and roads, updating costs and fares to 2000 dollars, and incorporating the traffic impacts of freight trucks.

Since we can't know what the future holds, the computer models include some "assumptions" about the future related to land use, population, and other factors to predict when and where we'll travel. Short-term improvements to the computer models will better represent assumptions about transit fares, tolls, use of HOV lanes, capacity of park-and-ride lots, and cross-Sound ferry trips.

These improvements will be guided by the Regional Technical Forum to assure they pass muster with technical staff and all who will benefit from them.

By 2006, the Regional Council would like to replace the current land use and travel demand models with a model that better integrates land use and transportation.

This model would integrate long-term household choices, such as where we live and work, with short-term choices of daily activity like getting the kids to school and stopping at the grocery store. Models of this type have been developed in San Francisco and Portland and are currently being tested.

This mid-term model would allow a much finer level of detail and would be much more useful for cities and counties in the region. It would be able to forecast traffic conditions at a parcel level rather than the larger "transportation analysis zone" (TAZ) that's currently used. To help fund the estimated $1.5-2.5 million needed to develop this model, the Regional Council will seek to partner with local, state and federal agencies.

Long-term improvements (2004-2008) would depend on new technologies that are just now being researched in other parts of the country. One example is dynamic microsimulation, which would allow a computer model to forecast the movements of each vehicle on the road all the time.

Reports documenting the review of the computer models and the recommendations for improvements are available from the Regional Council's Information Center, (206)464-7532, or on the Web at psrc.org. For more information, contact Larry Blain at (206)464-5402, lblain@psrc.org.

Transit Station Communities Project Regional Council Supports Local Efforts to Make Transit-Oriented Development Real By 2030 central Puget Sound will have over 100 major regional transportation hubs serving thousands of bus, rail and ferry riders each day. Many of those regional transit stations will help spark new housing, offices, shops, and restaurants close by. Developing a lively mix of land uses around transit stations will make it easy for people to walk to catch a bus, buy a coffee, and take other daily trips without the hassles of traffic congestion. The Regional Council's Transit Station Communities Project is helping to make transit-oriented development happen in the region. The project is funded by a Federal Highway Administration grant that is part of the broader "smart growth" initiative at the federal level. In addition to a regional awareness campaign, the Regional Council is also working directly with local governments to test strategies that will help transit-oriented development succeed. The purpose is to focus on a few locations and share what's learned throughout the region. After considering a number of proposals, the Regional Council selected the following projects to receive direct technical assistance: City of Sumner, Market Analysis and Parking Study for Downtown Sumner will receive funding to support a market analysis and parking study for the area surrounding its new commuter rail station adjacent to downtown. The study will recommend effective parking management strategies that support transit use and downtown development. The study will be used in the development of the Sumner Station Area Plan. City of Auburn, Parking Management Plan for Transit Station Area The City of Auburn will receive funding for a parking management plan for the commuter rail station directly adjacent to downtown. A major issue to be addressed is how to balance long-term commuter parking with short-term business parking demands. The city plans to provide parking for downtown business uses in publicly owned and operated parking structures. Developers will negotiate with the city for private use of this public parking supply. The city is also currently working on a joint operating agreement for a new parking structure being developed by Sound Transit. The parking and operation plan will include a proposed management structure as part of Auburn's downtown business area. Kitsap Transit, Development Program for Public/Private TOD The new Bremerton Transportation Center, which links ferry riders with Kitsap Transit buses, provides an excellent opportunity to foster transit-oriented development in downtown Bremerton. The Regional Council will provide funding for a consultant to prepare a request for proposal for public/private development of a three-story retail/office building adjacent to the transportation center. The consultant will also assist Kitsap Transit in evaluating and negotiating with potential developers. Snohomish County, Facilitate Public/Private Partnerships in Support of TOD The Regional Council is funding a partnership between the Snohomish County Economic Development Council (EDC) and Snohomish County to promote transit-oriented development with private developers at two locations in unincorporated Snohomish County. The partnership will complement Snohomish County's urban center planning program and the development of new bus transit centers by Sound Transit and Community Transit. The EDC will establish direct contacts with landowners and developers that are considering development at these stations. In addition, the EDC will convene a variety of stakeholders to advise and guide the county in creating appropriate public/private incentives that foster transit-oriented development. In addition to these direct technical assistance efforts with local governments, the Regional Council will also organize a series of half-to full-day workshops this fall to provide assistance to other local governments. The workshop format will allow community leaders to meet with TOD experts to discuss and work on problems facing specific transit station areas. To learn more about the Transit Station Communities Project, go to our Web site at TODcommunities.org or call Ned Conroy (206) 587-5670, nconroy@psrc.org, or John Scandola (206)464-6180, jscandola@psrc.org. What's a TOD? Promoting Regional Awareness of Transit-Oriented Development "TOD" is plannerese for transit-oriented development. Over the past year and a half, the Regional Council has been working with 1000 Friends of Washington to raise awareness of TOD among local governments, transit agencies, developers, and the general public. Some of the efforts included: A media packet for local reporters describing transit-friendly development and highlighting development opportunities in the region. A Web site, TODcommunities.org, devoted to transit-oriented development in the central Puget Sound region. Presentations to communities throughout the region. A forum for local planning staff to discuss topics associated with transit-oriented development. Well-attended conferences that brought together local governments, transit agencies, private developers, and the financial community. Tours for local officials and staff to see transit-oriented development projects up close. Destinations have included Portland's light rail system and commuter rail stations in south King County.

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CENSUS WORKSHOP BACK DUE TO POPULAR DEMAND

Overwhelming response to a Census workshop last April has prompted the Regional Council to plan a similar workshop for September 20. The workshop will feature presentations by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Regional Council. Topics will include: discussion of Summary File 1 data, revised race and ethnicity data categories, national product release schedule, and American Factfinder on-line tutorial.

There will be two workshop sessions, from 9 AM-NOON, and from 1-4 PM. Census workshops have been well-attended in the past, so register early to reserve a spot. The deadline for registration is September 14. Click on the following links for:

Agenda - morning session
Agenda - afternoon session

For more information, contact Gail Boyd at (206)464-7890, gboyd@psrc.org.

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FOOTPRINTS & BIKE TRACKS 2001 CONFERENCE

Biking and Walking: Transportation for this Millennium

Discover new ways to make biking and walking viable in your community at Footprints & Bike Tracks 2001, Bicycling And Walking: Transportation for this Millennium, October 10-12, 2001, at the WestCoast Olympia Hotel in Olympia.

Footprints & Bike Tracks is held every two years to provide an educational forum to increase the numbers and safety of people walking and biking in Washington's communities. The conference is designed for people working or advocating for bicycle and pedestrian facility improvements, including elected officials, planners, engineers, educators, advocates, developers and financiers, health providers, and law enforcement officers.

Conference sessions include Recent Trends & Future Implications, Trail Development in New Corridors, and Community-Based Bicycle Education & Pedestrian Safety. There will also be three mobile workshops available for conference attendees.

For registration information, please contact Kimberly Colburn at (360)705-7879 or colburk@wsdot.wa.gov, or register on-line at www.bicyclealliance.org. For more information regarding the conference program, please contact Barbara Culp at (206)224-9252 or barbc@bicyclealliance.org.

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TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS TO BE RELEASED FOR PUBLIC COMMENT

The Puget Sound Regional Council is inviting public comment on a proposed major amendment to the 2001-2004 Regional Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). The TIP is a document which details hundreds of planned projects to improve highways and roadways, transit, and other forms of transportation in the four-county central Puget Sound region, ensuring that the projects are coordinated and meet federal air quality standards.

The major amendment consists of 41 projects, including both new projects and amendments to existing projects. The proposed amendment includes projects using federal funds managed by the state, locally funded, regionally significant projects as required by state and federal requirements for air quality analysis, and projects funded by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). The program of projects funded by the Federal Transit Administration is also included in the TIP for the region's transit agencies, which include Sound Transit, Community Transit, Everett Transit, Kitsap Transit, Metro King County Transit, Pierce Transit, Seattle Monorail and Washington State Ferries.

The public comment period on the major amendment runs from August 9 through September 13, 2001. On September 13, the Transportation Policy Board will receive a summary of all public comments on the proposed amendment, and will take action on a recommendation to the Executive Board. There will also be an opportunity for comment at the September 27 meeting of the Executive Board when the TIP is scheduled to be adopted.

Please send written comments on the major amendment to the attention of Karen Richter:

MAIL:	Karen Richter Puget Sound Regional Council 1011 Western Avenue, Suite 500 Seattle, WA 98104
FAX:	(206)587-4825
E-MAIL:	krichter@psrc.org

A listing of projects submitted for the major amendment is available on the Regional Council's Web site at psrc.org/projects/tip/index.htm, or by calling the Regional Council's Information Center, (206)464-7532.

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PUGET SOUND FINALIZES REGIONAL INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE

In June the Regional Council, in cooperation with local jurisdictions and transportation organizations, finalized an intelligent transportation system (ITS) architecture to guide future ITS investments in the region. The architecture provides a strategy for planning and coordinating how ITS information is shared on a region-wide basis.

The new architecture will provide maximum return on ITS investments by linking jurisdictions and the private sector to a common framework for sharing ITS information. For more information on the Puget Sound Regional ITS Architecture, contact the Information Center (206)464-7532 and check out the Regional Council's ITS Web site, psrc.org/projects/its.

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Traffic Keeping Pace with Population and Job Growth Continuing a trend of the 1990s, traffic continues to keep pace with population and job growth in the central Puget Sound region. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has grown at about the same rate as population and employment for last decade, moderating the runaway growth experienced during the 1980s when vehicle miles grew three times as fast as people and nearly twice as fast as jobs. In the last five years, the average annual rate of growth in employment has been 2.4 percent, in population 1.6 percent, and in VMT 1.8 percent. The long-term rates of growth of population, employment and VMT are expected to oscillate around 2 percent. It is important to note that this Trend discusses changes in the average rates of growth over five-year periods. The annual growth in population, employment, registered vehicles, and VMT continues. The table shows the actual numbers with their average annual growth rates. The region's population is expected to grow by 40 percent to more than 4.5 million by 2030, and total miles traveled will also likely increase over 40 percent by the year 2030. The full version of this Trend, with additional figures and discussion, can be found on the Regional Council's Web site, psrc.org. For more information, write or call Larry Blain at lblain@psrc.org, (206)464-5402.   Population1 Employed Persons2 Average Weekday Vehicle Miles Traveled3 1981 2,309,400 1,021,200 30,337,000 Four-Year Average Annual Growth Rate 1.3% 2.2% 6.6% 1985 2,436,200 1,115,800 39,222,000 5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate 2.4% 5.2% 6.1% 1990 2,748,800 1,434,500 52,612,000 5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate 1.9% 1.2% 2.7% 1995 3,020,000 1,523,900 60,125,000 5-Year Average Annual Growth Rate 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2000 3,275,800 1,718,800 65,843,000 SOURCE 1 Estimate (non-Census years), Office of Financial Management, Washington State. (1990, 2000) U.S. Census Coverage: King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties. 2 Estimate, Employment Security Department, Washington State.Coverage: King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties. 3 Highway Performance Monitoring System, Department of Transportation, Washington State. Coverage: Seattle-Everett and Tacoma Urbanized Areas (basically Everett to Tacoma, Puget Sound to Lake Sammamish) Because of different geographic coverages, it is not possible to use these figures to compare population or employment to VMT. Clarification: Last month's Puget Sound Trend compared growth in Puget Sound cities during the 1990s. Some of the cities, such as Bainbridge Island, showed a big jump in population. But in some cases, growth was due in part to changes in municipal boundaries rather than "real growth." For more information on population changes in cities and towns in the region, check out the July issue of Puget Sound Trends on the Web at: psrc.org/datapubs/pubs/trends/d6trend.pdf. Or call the Information Center for a paper copy, (206)464-7532.

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