The Regional Aviation Baseline Study has been completed and is now available. In addition to the final study and executive summary, supporting materials on the website include an overview presentation, stakeholder engagement report and three working papers on related research topics.
The study projects demand for take-offs and landings in the region will double by 2050 from over 400,000 to over 800,000 per year. This will result in a projected regional gap in service by 2050 that is roughly equivalent to all the passengers served at Sea-Tac in 2019. While air travel has slowed sharply due to COVID-19, forecasts show that demand over the long term will continue.
“Before the pandemic, Sea-Tac was bursting at the seams, and once more people feel safe traveling again, it is expected that demand will ramp up quickly and continue to grow into the future,” said Josh Brown, PSRC Executive Director. “This study lays the groundwork for the state Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission’s process to identify next steps to address this challenge and prepare for the future.”
The study identifies a range of scenarios that could meet varying levels of the projected demand, with an analysis of the potential economic, environmental, and community impacts. Without expanding capacity, airlines will respond to increased demand by raising ticket prices, delays will become more frequent, it will take longer to move through security, and parking and airport access will become more difficult for most travelers.
The Washington State Legislature created the Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission as part of the Washington State Department of Transportation. The Commission will develop recommendations to meet the state's critical aviation system capacity needs.
“The two-year Regional Aviation Baseline Study conducted by PSRC has provided the Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission with an exceptional understanding of the current status of the airports within the region as well as the future capacity needs as communities and businesses continue to grow,” said David Fleckenstein, WSDOT Director of Aviation, adding:
“The projections for aviation demand reinforce the necessity for the Commission to complete its work and make informed recommendations as to what could be done to meet the demand for air passenger service, air cargo operations, and general aviation. The information derived from the PSRC study has and will continue to inform Commission members as the work continues. Speaking for the Commission, we greatly appreciate the work completed by the PSRC team.”
In 2018, PSRC received a $1.6 million grant from the Federal Aviation Administration to conduct the Regional Aviation Baseline Study to provide an understanding of the regional aviation system and forecast future needs. Link to study: https://www.psrc.org/aviation-baseline-study.